In response to a deadly April attack in Kashmir that left 26 civilians dead, India has suspended its participation in the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty. It is now weighing projects that could reduce the flow of water into Pakistan. The treaty signed in 1960 has long governed the sharing of the Indus River system between the two countries.
Government sources and documents planning indicate that India is considering infrastructure projects especially on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers that could redirect or store more water within Indian territory. While these rivers were allocated primarily to Pakistan under the treaty, India is allowed limited use for irrigation and hydropower. New Delhi now seems ready to push those limits further.
Expansion of Ranbir Canal
One of the central proposals is the expansion of the Ranbir canal, which draws water from the Chenab River. India currently diverts around 40 cubic meters per second through the canal. Plans under review could increase that to 150 cubic meters by extending the canal to 120 kilometres, up from its current 60 km length.
The Ranbir canal predates the 1960 treaty and runs through Jammu and Kashmir before the Chenab crosses into Pakistan’s Punjab province, a major agricultural region. Experts note that any major expansion would take several years to construct but could eventually have a measurable impact on downstream flow.
Pakistan’s Legal and Diplomatic Pushback
Pakistan has called India’s suspension of the treaty “unlawful” and views any attempt to reduce its water supply as a serious threat. The Indus river system supports about 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and powers most of its hydropower infrastructure. Islamabad has said it will pursue legal action through international forums including the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and possibly the International Court of Justice.
Officials in Pakistan have stated that water should not be “weaponised,” and they view any disruption to their allocated supply as potentially destabilizing in a region already marked by deep political mistrust.
India’s Strategic Rationale
Indian officials argue that the treaty needs to evolve to reflect population growth, climate challenges, and rising energy demands. They also see the new water strategy as part of a broader effort to put pressure on Pakistan, particularly over cross-border militancy and Kashmir.
According to internal documents reviewed by Reuters, India is also reviewing a slate of new hydropower projects that would significantly increase storage capacity on rivers previously reserved for Pakistan. Some of these plans have existed for years but are now gaining urgency after the April attack.
New Front in an Old Conflict
While any large-scale diversion or storage projects would take years to complete, the political signals are immediate. Water has always been a sensitive subject in South Asia but using it as a pressure point risks escalating tensions in a region with two nuclear powers. Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty is a rare success story in India-Pakistan relations marking a major shift.
Some Indian analysts are also cautious. They warn that setting a precedent on cross-border water control could invite retaliation from China, which controls river flows into northeastern India from Tibet.
What’s Next?
Delhi has not made a formal declaration on any single project, but the groundwork is being laid. With the treaty on hold and cross-border tensions simmering, both countries are preparing for a new kind of standoff, one where rivers, not just borders, are under dispute.
What’s your take on this strategy?
Should water-sharing treaties be right in light of modern conflicts and needs, or are they too essential to touch? Share your thoughts about South Asia’s evolving geopolitics in the comments below.
